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Contents April 2009
AFCOM's Data Center Institute revisits five bold predictions for the data centre that reflect impact of today's energy and economic situations
Las Vegas 12 March 2009 This year's bi-annual AFCOM Data Center World 2009 at the Paris Hotel & Convention Center in Las Vegas brought together approximately 800 data centre professionals. During the conference, board members that sit on AFCOM's Data Center Institute (DCI), an industry think-tank, joined together with leading technology media and industry analysts to discuss some of the most critical issues facing the data centre industry today.
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The event began with a formal introduction by Len Eckhaus, founder of AFCOM and Data Center Institute board member, revealing the recently updated "Five Bold Predictions for the Data Center", originally released by the Data Center Institute in March 2006. The updates take into account today's focus on energy efficiency, and the current state of the economy. They are also based on an AFCOM Data Center Institute December 2008 survey, "The Current Economy and Its Impact on the Data Center", which surveyed 133 AFCOM members, all large-scale data centre managers.

Listed below are the original AFCOM Data Center Institute "Five Bold Predictions for the Data Center", now updated:

1. By 2015, the talent pool of qualified senior level technical and management data centre professionals will shrink by 45%

2. By 2010, more than half of all data centres will have to relocate to new facilities or outsource some applications

3. Over the next five years, power failures and limits on power availability will halt data centre operations at least once at more than 90% of all companies

4. By 2010, nearly 70% of all data centres will utilize some form of Grid computing or other virtual processing

5. Within the next five years, one out of every four data centres will experience a business disruption serious enough to affect the entire company's ability to continue business-as-usual

And, here are additional prediction insights directly from the AFCOM Data Center Institute board members:

  • Prediction 1: By 2015, the talent pool of qualified senior level technical and management data centre professionals will shrink by 45%.

Due to the recession, the shrinking of the talent pool of senior level technical and management data centre professionals has actually sped up. Many businesses have had to close their doors. Others have had to lay people off.

In 2002, Meta Group reported that 55% of all IT workers with mainframe experience were then over 50 years old. Seven years later that number is easily over 60%.

In many cases older, higher paid employees, the ones with the most knowledge and experience, have been offered buy-outs and this has resulted in many taking early retirement and not re-entering the work force.

AFCOM's recent survey of its membership showed that 9.6% of all data centres expect staff cuts as part of their decreased budgets, which adds to this technology drain.

The other side of this is that with many people being layed off and retiring, the demand for that knowledge is higher than ever, so some people who were planning to retire, but have lost too much of their investment savings, are continuing to work because they can no longer afford to retire.

But overall, we do see the critical IT talent pool shrinking even more because of the economy.

  • Prediction 2: By 2010, more than half of all data centres will have to re-locate to new facilities or outsource some applications.

This has slowed down. The most recent survey shows that 40.1% of all data centres cutting budgets will have to delay or cancel a planned physical expansion or relocation. Because of this, there will be an increase in outsourcing as data centre space gets tighter and capital spending drains up. With this in mind, data centre managers will have to work more efficiently through projects such as consolidation and outsourcing, and begin to look more seriously at technologies such as utility and Cloud computing.

  • Prediction 3: Over the next five years, power failures and limits on power availability will halt data centre operations at least once at more than 90% of all companies.

This still stands. There probably will not be any changes in this prediction.

  • Prediction 4: By 2010, nearly 70% of all data centres will utilize some form of Grid computing or other virtual processing.

This will be happening faster than expected. The most recent surveys indicate that 86.2% of all data centres expect to increase the use of virtualization, and to a lesser extent, other technologies such as Cloud and utility computing to cut back the need for new servers.

  • Prediction 5: Within the next five years, one out of every four data centres will experience a business disruption serious enough to affect the entire company's ability to continue business-as-usual.

This will worsen. Reported budget cuts indicate that 6.1% of all data centres will have to decrease their physical security measures, 4.5% will have to decrease their data security, and 11.5% forecast that budget cuts they are making will result in an increase in service interruptions.

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Source: AFCOM

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